Soccernomics und Trainer-Erfolg
Der Rekordmann mit dem grünen Kapuzenpullover sorgt weiter für die Aufholjagd und für Rekorde bei Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Das Team von Interimscoach André Schubert ließ sich auch bei der heimstarken Hertha in Berlin nicht aufhalten und siegte hochverdient mit 4:1 (2:0). Für Schubert war es bereits der sechste Liga-Sieg in Serie, nachdem er die völlig verunsicherten "Fohlen" von Lucien Favre vor 40 Tagen auf dem letzten Platz übernommen hatte - besser startete kein Trainer bei der Borussia.
| Spieltag | Datum | Uhrzeit | Ort | Rang | Gegner | Spielsystem | Zuschauer | Ergebnis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sa. 15.08.2015 | 18:30 | A |  | Bor. Dortmund | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 81.359 | 4:0 | |
| 2 | So. 23.08.2015 | 17:30 | H | (17.) |  | 1.FSV Mainz 05 (13.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 50.172 | 1:2 |
| 3 | So. 30.08.2015 | 17:30 | A | (18.) |  | Werder Bremen (15.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 42.100 | 2:1 |
| 4 | Fr. 11.09.2015 | 20:30 | H | (18.) |  | Hamburger SV (13.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 54.010 | 0:3 |
| 5 | Sa. 19.09.2015 | 15:30 | A | (18.) |  | 1.FC Köln (8.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 47.800 | 1:0 |
| 6 | Mi. 23.09.2015 | 20:00 | H | (18.) |  | FC Augsburg (14.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 40.511 | 4:2 |
| 7 | Sa. 26.09.2015 | 15:30 | A | (16.) |  | VfB Stuttgart (15.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 51.020 | 1:3 |
| 8 | Sa. 03.10.2015 | 15:30 | H | (14.) |  | VfL Wolfsburg (4.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 52.581 | 2:0 |
| 9 | Sa. 17.10.2015 | 18:30 | A | (13.) |  | E. Frankfurt (12.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 51.000 | 1:5 |
| 10 | So. 25.10.2015 | 17:30 | H | (10.) |  | FC Schalke 04 (3.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 54.010 | 3:1 |
| 11 | Sa. 31.10.2015 | 15:30 | A | (7.) |  | Hertha BSC (5.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 58.566 | 1:4 |
| 12 | Sa. 07.11.2015 | 15:30 | H | (5.) |  | FC Ingolstadt (8.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 52.331 | 0:0 |
| 13 | Sa. 21.11.2015 | 15:30 | H | (6.) |  | Hannover 96 (15.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 42.214 | 2:1 |
| 14 | Sa. 28.11.2015 | 15:30 | A | (5.) |  | TSG Hoffenheim (18.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 30.150 | 3:3 |
| 15 | Sa. 05.12.2015 | 15:30 | H | (4.) |  | Bayern München (1.) | 3-4-2-1 | 54.010 | 3:1 |
| 16 | Sa. 12.12.2015 | 18:30 | A | (3.) |  | Bay. Leverkusen (8.) | 3-4-2-1 | 30.210 | 5:0 |
| 17 | So. 20.12.2015 | 17:30 | H | (5.) |  | SV Darmstadt 98 (12.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 53.610 | 3:2 |
| 18 | Sa. 23.01.2016 | 18:30 | H | (4.) | | Bor. Dortmund (2.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 54.010 | 1:3 |
| 19 | Fr. 29.01.2016 | 20:30 | A | (4.) | | 1.FSV Mainz 05 (8.) | 4-1-4-1 | 32.015 | 1:0 |
| 20 | Fr. 05.02.2016 | 20:30 | H | (6.) | | Werder Bremen (16.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 51.569 | 5:1 |
| 21 | So. 14.02.2016 | 15:30 | A | (6.) | | Hamburger SV (13.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 56.706 | 3:2 |
| 22 | Sa. 20.02.2016 | 15:30 | H | (7.) | | 1.FC Köln (9.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 52.226 | 1:0 |
| 23 | So. 28.02.2016 | 15:30 | A | (5.) | | FC Augsburg (13.) | 4-4-2 doppel 6 | 29.665 | 2:2 |
| 24 | Mi. 02.03.2016 | 20:00 | H | (4.) | | VfB Stuttgart (12.) | 3-4-2-1 | 43.627 | 4:0 |
| 25 | Sa. 05.03.2016 | 15:30 | A | (4.) | | VfL Wolfsburg (8.) | 5-4-1 flach | 29.224 | 2:1 |
| 26 | Sa. 12.03.2016 | 15:30 | H | (6.) | | E. Frankfurt (16.) | 3-5-2 | 54.010 | 3:0 |
Was ist rein statistisch vom Schubert-Effekt zu halten?
Die ersten 13. Spiele mit Favre & Schubert:
3+1+3+3+3+3+3+3+0+0+0+0+0=22
22÷13
=1.6923076923 Punkte im Durchschnitt
=1.6923076923 Punkte im Durchschnitt
Die zweiten 13. Spiele mit Schubert alleine:
3+0+3+1+3+0+3+0+0+3+0+3+1=20
20÷13
=1.5384615385 Punkte im Durchschnitt
=1.5384615385 Punkte im Durchschnitt
"In fact, new managers cannot work magic. The short honeymoon after the new man takes over is easy to explain. Typically, the average club earns 1.3 points a match. Typically, Bridgewater found, a club sacks its manager when it averages only 1 point a match—that is, at a low point in the cycle.
Any statistician can predict what should happen after a low point: whether or not the club sacks its manager, or changes its brand of teacakes, its performance will probably “regress to the mean” – or in ordinary language, return to normal. Simply put, from a low point you are always likely to improve. The club may have hit the low due to bad luck, or injuries, or a tough run of fixtures, or—as perhaps in Manchester City’s case in 2009—the time it takes for a largely new team to gel. Whatever the reason for hitting a low, things will almost inevitably improve afterward."
(...)
Soccernomics:
"In both victory and defeat, the manager’s role is overestimated. (Hiddink himself doesn’t make that mistake. He doesn’t take himself too seriously.) Managers simply don’t matter that much. Players do. By far the best predictor of where a team will finish in the table is its wage bill: the team with the highest wages generally finishes top, and the team with the lowest wages bottom.
On the long term, under a new manager a team returns to its usual average performance. In 2010 under Mancini, City didn’t get close to winning the league. They finished fifth.
Yet clubs continue to sack managers. It’s a pretty expensive hobby. In the 2010-2011 season alone, English clubs spent an estimated £99 million sacrificing their managers, if you add up the cost of compensation, legal fees, and 'double contracts' (paying the old and new manager at the same time), according to the League Managers Association. All this money could have been more usefully spent on players’ wage bills or on improving stadiums. Football’s human sacrifice is a sign that the sport still isn’t very clever."
http://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference#:YX_lnq1p9q2fRA
Soccernomics
von Simon Kuper,Stefan SzymanskiWhat’s wrong with Soccernomics?
Soccernomics - S. 118: “Any statistician can predict what should happen after a low point: whether or not the club sacks its manager, or changes its brand of teacakes, its performance will probably regress to the mean. Simply put, from a low point you are always likely to improve.”
This statement would be true if nothing ever changed in soccer. Regression to the mean only works when the dynamics of the system are the same. Everything that matters about the club must stay the same, as must everything that matters about the other clubs in the league. The authors’ hypothesis is that the manager does not matter to the club, but they neglect the possibility that the manager’s sacking might coincide with something else that matters to the club’s performance in the league. Moreover, they conflate average performance across the league (“the average club earns 1.3 points a match”) with a club’s own performance (“a club sacks its manager when it averages only 1 point a match”). Only the club’s own performance can be expected to regress to the mean, since clubs are all different; for clubs that sack their managers, that performance may fall short of 1.3 points per game.
http://danielaltman.com/data/soccernomics-nya.pdf
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